Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.195811 0.234641 0.281033 0.341099 0.417622 0.512958 6.424686e-01
2025-06-08 0.144485 0.188821 0.247902 0.334209 0.460230 0.642749 9.373184e-01
2025-06-15 0.112913 0.158662 0.225583 0.334421 0.514836 0.817628 1.402393e+00
2025-06-22 0.090341 0.135224 0.206540 0.334573 0.574288 1.041106 2.134915e+00
2025-06-29 0.070770 0.111556 0.180984 0.316682 0.599963 1.234200 3.038336e+00
2025-07-06 0.050435 0.082094 0.138363 0.254521 0.515148 1.157556 3.262973e+00
2025-07-13 0.042308 0.071871 0.127569 0.251548 0.559716 1.435179 5.019564e+00
2025-07-20 0.037005 0.065591 0.122704 0.260144 0.641403 1.912411 8.748051e+00
2025-07-27 0.033054 0.061029 0.120212 0.274192 0.752900 2.655101 1.690506e+01
2025-08-03 0.029403 0.056286 0.116147 0.283484 0.863500 3.616244 3.368586e+01
2025-08-10 0.025582 0.050392 0.107955 0.278613 0.927222 4.535988 6.231582e+01
2025-08-17 0.022042 0.044430 0.098132 0.265278 0.952307 5.358327 1.091887e+02
2025-08-24 0.019666 0.040852 0.093961 0.270460 1.079409 7.474215 3.020418e+02
2025-08-31 0.017641 0.037698 0.090129 0.275837 1.225708 10.640405 1.096647e+03
2025-09-07 0.016021 0.035209 0.087505 0.285173 1.420745 16.002438 7.283004e+03
2025-09-14 0.014577 0.032873 0.084719 0.293193 1.636686 24.443557 1.635797e+05
2025-09-21 0.012938 0.029716 0.078607 0.284279 1.729686 32.553748 5.596634e+07
2025-09-28 0.010637 0.024432 0.064634 0.233780 1.422832 26.799720 4.787984e+07
2025-10-05 0.009720 0.022756 0.061872 0.234559 1.569601 38.916535 NaN
2025-10-12 0.009102 0.021789 0.061195 0.245488 1.848781 66.821356 NaN
2025-10-19 0.008617 0.021108 0.061323 0.261293 2.243886 130.152678 NaN
2025-10-26 0.008101 0.020242 0.060580 0.272433 2.643955 254.170975 NaN
2025-11-02 0.007460 0.018900 0.057741 0.269746 2.862486 418.216537 NaN